In 2010, Poland’s economic growth will rise to 2.5 percent, and 3.1 percent in 2011, says OECD report Economic Outlook 86.The forecast is better than for other euro-zone economies, for which GDP is expected at 0.9 percent in 2010 and 1.7 percent in 2011.
Authors of the report emphasise that the situation of Poland’s economy is advantageous compared to the other OECD countries that suffer from recession. According to OECD analysts, Poland will manage to sustain the 1.4 percent growth in 2009 thanks to, among other things, early moderation of the monetary policy, weaker Polish złoty, relatively low dependency on export, lowered tax wedge, and infrastructural investments financed with EU funds.
The strong fundaments of the Polish economy are further confirmed with the two-year forecast, which shows relatively low unemployment rate (9.6 percent). Compared to the euro-zone, which is going to mark a rate of 10.8 percent in 2011, OECD economists project the Polish job market to remain stable.
However, the OECD report also points to a threat for the Polish economy in that its public finances are unstable. The analyses indicate that the deficit of the sector of central institutions and local governments will reach 6.4 percent in 2009 and 7.8 percent in 2010. According to OECD analysts, this index will play a negative role for the level of the public debt.
Basic macroeconomic indexes for USA, Japan, euro-zone and Poland:
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
GDP growth (%) |
|
|
|
|
USA |
-2.5 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
|
Japan |
-5.3 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
|
euro-zone |
-4.0 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
|
POLAND |
1.4 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
|
Inflation (CPI) |
|
|
|
|
USA |
0.2 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
|
Japan |
-1.2 |
-0.9 |
-0.5 |
|
euro-zone |
0.2 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
|
POLAND |
3.5 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
|
Unemployment |
|
|
|
|
USA |
9.2 |
9.9 |
9.1 |
|
Japan |
5.2 |
5.6 |
5.4 |
|
euro-zone |
9.4 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
|
POLAND |
8.4 |
9.6 |
9.6 |
OECD presented its report Economic Outlook 86 on 19 November 2009 in Paris.
The OECD report is available at: http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,3343,en_2649_33733_20347538_1_1_1_1,00.html